If you’re anything like us, you love a good data set. While the final sales of the fall market are still trickling in (a November listing may not yet show as “sold”), we wanted to take a lookback to see how this fall stacks up to past falls. Without further ado…
For homes listed + sold in September 1 - November 30, in the inner East Bay (an area comprised of Oakland, Piedmont, Berkeley, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito) we found the following:
- The median sales price in fall 2025 was $1,214,500 as compared to $1,250,000 at the peak of the market in 2021
- In 2023, the median sales price had dropped 8.9% from the 2011 peak. Since 2023 the median sales price has risen 6.4% - recovering to nearly 2021 levels
- The fall of 2025 has seen fewer listings hit the market than in any year since 2011
Now that we’ve had a little space from the wild pandemic real estate peak (remember sub-3% mortgages?), we see how the market moved. Once interest rates jumped to roughly 7%, the median sales price dropped 6.5%. For context, a 6.5% reduction is considered a “dip”...while many of us felt it, it wasn’t a sustained and life-altering market event.
Even at the lowest point of 8.9% at the end of 2023, East Bay real estate was operating in that space between a “dip” and a “correction”...economists may banter about the distinction but all are in agreement that adjustments are natural and to be expected.
If you bought your home at the peak and life changes forced a sale at the trough (fall 2023), you were absolutely feeling that 8.9% reduction in value - call it what you will.
But once 2024 hit, we saw a turning. We hypothesize that the ~7% mortgage interest rate had become normal at that point. It was our experience that buyers no longer viewed the cost to borrow money as a major hurdle, and sellers were loosening their grip on owned homes. The fears of a major market downturn once interest rates were raised proved to be overblown and buyers and sellers felt better. Consumer sentiment was on the rise.
While consumer confidence was shaken due to the uncertainty of a national election in fall 2024, this year has surprised us in its bullish growth.
A 5.6% increase in median sales price from 2024 isn’t nothing!
“Why the growth?” you may ask…
We have only our first-person experience to rely on in these moments. And we’re seeing two themes emerge:
First observation: Boomers came to play. Time and time again, retirees, new grandparents, and downsizers are emerging as the most competitive buyers for the most desirable homes. While the younger set can buy all the homes with 20 stairs to enter, the silver foxes of our world are going toe-to-toe for one-level living with a view. Many buyers in this generation have accumulated wealth and are leveraging hard-won careers and the reality of a fixed income to buy homes with cash, right out from underneath our loan-reliant Millennial friends.
Second observation: While we maintain that general uncertainty - whether it be personal, national, or global - can have the greatest impact on consumer confidence, we’ve been living in relative uncertainty for quite some time. Perhaps the narrative is similar to the interest rate hike…when interest rates jumped up, consumers froze in place for a period of time to suss out the situation but eventually the ~7% interest rates felt more normal than abnormal. When the world is always uncertain, the very state of uncertainty feels to-be-expected and we humans adjust. Perhaps we’re all living in this new normal, for the time being at least.
Third observation: The data suggests that this fall saw fewer available listings than in past years. We all know that a dip in supply can drive up prices, if buyer demand stays static or increases. It will be interesting to see what unfolds this spring!
We anticipate a quiet(er) market over the holidays and we wish you all a peaceful time, spent with the ones you love! We’ll see you in 2026 :)
